I have to agree fully with this assessment. Instagram is becoming the platform where people share life events through images (as seen by Thanksgiving being the biggest event) and therefore it allows a new dynamic of social interaction.
Path, with the model of a closed social loop, means that there are no signals relating to peoples ‘true’ activity, thoughts or desired social interaction. Instagram captures this by using the image as the parent data point, and then allows the social interaction and ‘follow’ metaphor to grow from there … just looks at Jamie Oliver’s Instagram following and interactions.
Will Instagram become the new Facebook (even if it is now part of FB) … probably, as it is mobile first and a core part of a users’ core journey now on that device … taking and sharing an image of where they are, what they are seeing or thinking at that given time … hence why it is true to the core, original value of twitter.